The Jeremy Pratt PPL theory books, published under the AFE brand, are fairly good. They seem comprehensive, and they’re very accessible. I passed the Air Law exam comfortably, so they’re doing something right. Now I’ve just finished reading his Human Factors and Flight Safety book.
But he sometimes says some stupid and anachronistic things, like his comparison of the relative merits of alcohol and illegal drugs: apparently, boozing it up is harmless if you allow it to clear from the body before flying, but if you have a few puffs on a spliff or do a little bit of speed one day, it goes without saying that you’ll never, ever be safe to fly an aeroplane again, because unlike alcohol, they have long-term and irreversible effects. Apparently. I’m certainly not advocating their use… but I do have a penchant for factual rectitude.
And his little foray into statistics at the beginning of the Flight Safety section is a brilliantly ironic illustration of his title of for the chapter, which is “Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics”. He presents an obviously daft mis-interpretation of a statistic, to illustrate his point that “to get the best out of any statistical study, it is necessary to approach the subject with a fair dose of common sense.” Well, I claim that it is necessary to approach the subject with informed logical thinking, rather than common sense. His “common sense” analysis then presents the laughably fallacious conclusion that “statistically, a pen top or a sock is far more dangerous than an aircraft in flight”, because more people were injured by them in one year than by aircraft! He fails to consider that only a miniscule proportion of the population encounter light aircraft, and then only for a small amount of time on average, whereas almost everyone encounters pen-tops and socks almost every single day.
(Aside: A sensible comparison would be the number of current pilot’s license holders killed or injured by pen tops or socks, compared with the number of aviation fatalities and injuries. If we conservatively assume that the 30,000 UK pilots (1/2000 of the population) are as likely to be victims of pen tops (140/year in the UK) or socks (60/year) as anyone else, we get an average of 0.1 pilot victims a year… but 18 pilots a year die in aviation accidents, roughly 1 in 2000 pilots. This compares with about 1 in 20000 people being killed on the roads each year, so flying light aircraft appears more dangerous than regularly being in a car.)
Mr. Pratt occasionally gives a sense of “common sense says this, so it must be worth heeding” - which is wrong (and inconsistent with much of the good advice he gives elsewhere), and is a fallacy that may lead to the death of aviators. There is no valid substitute for evidence-based facts and rational thinking, and intuition may be wrong at any time.
<dismounts hobby horse>